What’s Wrong With Google’s New TV Show Model

Family Guy creator Seth McFarlane is making a series of cartoons that will only be available through Google AdSense banners, posted to sites where the target demographic already hangs out.

This is a good idea…if you’re selling the TV show, or advertising on the TV show, or if you’re Google. It’s not so great if you’re the publisher, or another advertiser on the site. Here’s why.

Assuming that the show is popular (and it will be, at least initially), it won’t be long before a list of the lucky sites gets posted somewhere under a header that reads “Here’s where to find Seth McFarlane’s Google TV show.” Fans will then go to those sites and obsessively refresh the pages until they see the show. Then, most likely, they’ll leave the site.

All those refreshes that happen before the TV show loads? That’s wasted inventory. Some other advertiser paid for it, and now their branding impact and CTR will plummet while each impression lasts a fraction of a second.

And those pageviews will affect the sites’s estimates of their own inventory, which they use to sell to other advertisers. Estimates will have to be adjusted from “we get a million pageviews per month” to “we get two million pageviews per month, but only when McFarlane’s show appears on AdSense, and when that happens, half the impressions are wasted if you’re any other advertiser.” And don’t forget: If you’re another advertiser, then when the McFarlane ads are running, Read the rest of this entry »